Predicting Disease Recurrence, Early Progression, and Overall Survival Following Surgical Resection for High-risk Localized and Locally Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma

Background: Risk stratification for localized renal cell carcinoma (RCC) relies heavily on retrospective models, limiting their generalizability to contemporary cohorts. Objective: To introduce a contemporary RCC prognostic model, developed using prospective, highly annotated data from a phase III adjuvant trial. Design, setting, and participants: The model utilizes outcome data from the ECOG-ACRIN 2805 (ASSURE) RCC trial. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The primary outcome for the model is disease-free survival (DFS), with overall survival (OS) and early disease progression (EDP) as secondary outcomes. Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration tests. Results and limitations: A total of 1735 patients were included in the analysis, with 887 DFS events occurring over a median follow-up of 9.6 yr. Five common tumor variables (histology, size, grade, tumor necrosis, and nodal involvement) were included in each model. Tumor histology was the single most powerful predictor for each model outcome. The C-statistics at 1 yr were 78.4% and 81.9% for DFS and OS, respectively. Degradation of the DFS, DFS validation set, and OS model's discriminatory ability was seen over time, with a global c-index of 68.0% (95% confidence interval or CI [65.5, 70.4]), 68.6% [65.1%, 72.2%], and 69.4% (95% CI [66.9%, 71.9%], respectively. The EDP model had a c-index of 75.1% (95% CI [71.3, 79.0]). Conclusions: We introduce a contemporary RCC recurrence model built and internally validated using prospective and highly annotated data from a clinical trial. Performance characteristics of the current model exceed available prognostic models with the added benefit of being histology inclusive and TNM agnostic. Patient summary: Important decisions, including treatment protocols, clinical trial eligibility, and life planning, rest on our ability to predict cancer outcomes accurately. Here, we introduce a contemporary renal cell carcinoma prognostic model leveraging high-quality data from a clinical trial. The current model predicts three outcome measures commonly utilized in clinical practice and exceeds the predictive ability of available prognostic models.